Comments on: Day 642: The Reason For The Season http://vatul.net/blog/index.php/1341 From Kuwait To Katrina And Beyond Wed, 09 May 2012 16:24:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Maitri http://vatul.net/blog/index.php/1341/comment-page-1#comment-164905 Maitri Sun, 03 Jun 2007 03:05:33 +0000 http://vatul.net/blog/index.php/1341/#comment-164905 Tim, thanks for your reply. On the one hand, you advise us not to get stuck on Katrina because it's over and will not come again but, on the other, state that the output of ADCIRC modeling, calibrated using recent storms, may give us the right output. So, Katrina is A (not the be all and end all) factor in this prediction exercise. Can you expound further on that? Thanks again! Tim, thanks for your reply. On the one hand, you advise us not to get stuck on Katrina because it’s over and will not come again but, on the other, state that the output of ADCIRC modeling, calibrated using recent storms, may give us the right output. So, Katrina is A (not the be all and end all) factor in this prediction exercise. Can you expound further on that? Thanks again!

]]> By: Tim http://vatul.net/blog/index.php/1341/comment-page-1#comment-164889 Tim Sun, 03 Jun 2007 00:14:55 +0000 http://vatul.net/blog/index.php/1341/#comment-164889 <p>Gosh, you sure have a lot of questions! You are correct that modeling storms is complicated and difficult, but we have no choice but to try. The latest ADCIRC modeling was calibrated using recent storms so I think getting the right output is not so far from reach.</p> <p>Every hurricane is different. What made Katrina so bad for us was the huge eye--30 miles wide. Camille was more powerful but was so compact--11 miles wide--that her destruction was considerably less.</p> <p>I've blogged dozens of times about this, but we've got to avoid obsessing on Katrina. That hurricane is over and will not come again. As the Army says, we can't prepare for the future by practicing past wars. The next hurricane might be all wind and no surge.</p> <p>The White House has never supported "Cat 5" protection for the city. They're doing everything they can to drag out and delay things so that the tough choice of whether or not to build it will fall on the next president.</p> <p>Sometime this summer the Corps is going to complete its analysis of the 100-yr elevations. I think you and I might be the only people I know who would like to read it!</p> <p>Peace,</p> <p>Tim</p> Gosh, you sure have a lot of questions! You are correct that modeling storms is complicated and difficult, but we have no choice but to try. The latest ADCIRC modeling was calibrated using recent storms so I think getting the right output is not so far from reach.

Every hurricane is different. What made Katrina so bad for us was the huge eye–30 miles wide. Camille was more powerful but was so compact–11 miles wide–that her destruction was considerably less.

I’ve blogged dozens of times about this, but we’ve got to avoid obsessing on Katrina. That hurricane is over and will not come again. As the Army says, we can’t prepare for the future by practicing past wars. The next hurricane might be all wind and no surge.

The White House has never supported “Cat 5″ protection for the city. They’re doing everything they can to drag out and delay things so that the tough choice of whether or not to build it will fall on the next president.

Sometime this summer the Corps is going to complete its analysis of the 100-yr elevations. I think you and I might be the only people I know who would like to read it!

Peace,

Tim

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